The Oscars (and other awards)

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Fun fact: In 1996, Braveheart lost the Producers, Directors and Actors Guild but won the Writers Guild. It would then go on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. That was the last time something like that happened. So... after 20 years... we could get a repeat of that. Bridge of Spies is nominated for "original" screenplay. Carol and The Martian are nominated for adapted screenplay.

I don't know why David Letterman has a reputation for doing a shitty job at the Oscars:

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Writers Guild Award

Spotlight won Best "Original" Screenplay and The Big Short ( PG Cooper ) won Best Adapted Screenplay.

If you're keeping track...

Producers: The Big Short
Directors: The Revenant
Writers: Spotlight and The Big Short
Actors: Spotlight

I think Spotlight has the edge right now. Although... don't forget the preferential voting. It's possible to have a shocker/upset. 20 years ago, Braveheart won Best Picture even though it won zero critic awards and only one guild award.

It leaked out that The Big Short only won PGA by 3 votes, though it isn't known what the second place film was.

Dracula Deexan

Grammy Awards

Album of the Year: 1989
Record of the Year: Uptown Funk
Song of the Year: Thinking Out Loud

That would provide a very messy grey area.

Eh, low hanging fruit.

I'm pretty sure I've read the one or two think pieces they based their research in, old news.  

Head's up

The Big Short - Available to own digitally
Bridge of Spies - Available to rent & own
Brooklyn - Available to own digitally
Mad Max: Fury Road - Available to rent & own & watch on HBO
The Martian - Available to rent & own
Room - Available to rent & own
Spotlight - Available to rent & own

The Revenant is the only movie unavailable for home media.

I don't know if that counts Canada. You can double-check Amazon or iTunes.

Some thoughts about the final predictions.


Best Picture
There are three movies this year with a strong chance of getting the award this year:The Revenant, The Big Short, and Spotlight.  Statistically speaking, The Big Short has the edge.  It got the most predictive of the precursors (the PGA) and it's gotten the widest nomination support of the nominees among guild awards.  Also it arguably has the zeitgeist and could win if voters are feeling the Bern.  Spotlight's advantage is that it feels the most in line with the Academy's usual taste.  It's exactly the kind of King's Speech like drama that the old people would go for.  Ultimately though, I'm going with The Revenant, in part because it pretty much has a lock on Best Director and I'm am averse to predicting a picture/director split ever.  Also it seems to have momentum and has actually won in more than one or two places.


Best Director
See above.  In a two way race between Revenant and Spotlight or Big Short McCarthy or McKay might have had more of a shot, but in a three way race I think Revenant has this one.


Best Actor
Leo obviously


Best Actress
Brie obviously


Best Supporting Actor
Almost certainly Stallone.  He has some statistics against him but those standing ovations he got at the when he won spoke volumes.



Supporting Actress
This one's tough because I can totally see Kate Winslett sneaking in to take this as she has from time to time, but every time she's gone up against Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl she's lost, so I'm sticking with the consensus. 


Adapted Screenplay
90% likely to be The Big Short.  Room might have a sliver of a chance but probably not.


Original Screenplay
95% likely to be Spotlight. If there's an upset it might go the way of Bridge of Spies simply to throw a bone at that BP nominee, but that's very unlikely.


Best Foreign Film
I'm kind of banking on people voting for this without even seeing it.  Mustang does have a shot here, the people behind it have been campaigning pretty hard and if voters watch the movies and find that movie an easier sit things could change, but I'm guessing a lot of people will vote for Saul by default. 


Best Animated Film
Inside Out of course


Best Art Direction
This is a tough one.  Going to process of elimination I'm guessing The Revenant will be docked for its largely outdoor nature and that the designed in The Martian will largely be taken for granted.  Bridge of spies might have an outside shot (again, I think they're going to want to give that something) and The Danish Girl might have a decent shot (I refused to see that one so I'm going in blind on some of the categories it's nominated in).  Ultimately I'm going with Mad Max simply because I have a cockamamie notion that that film will win exactly four Oscars... not sure why... but it could run into the same problem The Revenant has given that so much of it is set outdoors. 


Best Cinematography
90% sure The Revenant will take it.  Barring a left field Mad Max win it probably has it in the bag.


Best Costume design
Going with Cinderella here.  More than most this award isn't very connected to the BP race and almost always goes to something with frilly dresses.  


Best Editing
This award could be something of a bellwether.  If Spotlight somehow wins here expect that movie to win BP (as it stands a BP win for that movie would likely only be accompanied by a screenplay Oscar which would make it the first movie since The Greatest Show On Earth to win BP and only walk away with one other Oscar, which is a big part of why I didn't ultimately predict it).  If The Big Short or The Revenant wins here that would bode very well for either film's BP shot though wouldn't quite be certain.  However, if Mad Max wins here it probably means nothing for the other nominees except to be a blow against The Big Short (which would then be in the same boat with Spotlight in how hard it is to win BP with only one other Oscar).  I am predicting Mad Max, if only because this is one of the more action movie friendly categories and my aforementioned "it's going to win exactly four Oscars" theory.


Best Documentary
Probably going to go to the most popular nominee Amy.  If they actually watch the movies The Look of Silence has some shot, but The Act of Killing was arguably better and lost to a movie that's arguably worse.


Makeup
Going slightly against the grain on this one and picking The Revenant.  Kind of a hunch, I'm just thinking that DiCaprio's gory injuries in the movie are going to be more present in the voters minds than the weird mutation things in Mad Max.


Score
Predicting a huge upset here and going with Carol.  A lot of people are predicting The Hateful Eight simply because Morricone is such a legend but I'm skeptical.  The ballots don't actually show the nominee's names for the tech categories, jut the movie title.  How many of the Academy members even know that Morricone was the composer on that one, and more importantly how many of them even care? Barring that reasoning, I suspect that a lot of Academy members didn't even see the movie and the ones who did may not have liked the minimalist and brooding nature of the music in it.  Take away the name recognition factor and Carol has a much more basically aesthetically pleasing sound.  I'm probably wrong. 


Best song
Gaga has been all over the place promoting this and none of the other nominees have a strong claim.

Sound Mixing/Editing 
This could be the make or break category.  Mad Max, Revenant, and Star Wars all have a strong claim to it.  I think if the voters actually stop and think about what the two mean Mad Max would probably win mixing and Revenant would probably win Sound Editing, but I don't think they will.  Ultimately they're probably just going to go for Mad Max for both, just a hunch really.


Visual Effects
Revenant and Mad Max could win here but I think the Academy is going to want to honor Star Wars somewhere and it feels more expensive and CGI-ish than the other two.  Unless the Acadmey just has one of the two BP winners sweep through the techs I think Star Wars has the edge.

Best Documentary Short
“A Girl in the River” Call it a hunch


Live action short
“Everything Will Be Okay” An even hunchier hunch.


Animated short
“World of Tomorrow” I've actually seen this one (but not the other nominees), so this is slightly more informed.  They could punish it for having intentionally crude animation, but it's usually best not to predict cynically in these short categories.  A lot of people are picking the Pixar one... but Pixar hasn't won in the category since 2001.  The other one getting a lot of predictions is "A Bear Story," which apparently has cute bears in it.


Anyway, really tough year, I'm not expecting to get a great score.