Neverending
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Post by Neverending on Feb 28, 2016 17:41:50 GMT -5
Wow, lots here are thinking Revenant will win. I'd say it has about a 40% chance. We're predicting that Big Short and Spotlight will cancel each other other. The Best Picture category uses a preferential voting system, like Dracula's Top CS! movie list, so a more neutral movie has a greater chance of winning because it'll have a more consistent place on the list. The Oscars are like high school. If two movies are neck and neck, there's gonna be shenanigans involved. Let's say someone wants Spotlight to win. That person could put Big Short at the bottom of the list so it could get less points. Revenant doesn't have to deal with that stuff. That movie is probably not lower than #5 on most people's list. That being said... Let's not forget Mad Max: Fury Road. People really love that movie, and like Revenant, it's probably not lower than #5 on most people's list. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mad Max "shock" everyone and take home the top price. Like I said a few weeks ago, Braveheart won Best Picture 20 years ago even though it was not a major player during awards season. Most people were expecting Apollo 13 to win. And this was before preferential voting was a thing. It won the old fashioned way. So, sometimes, people underestimate the popularity of a movie. |
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IanTheCool
CS! Gold
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Post by IanTheCool on Feb 28, 2016 17:50:53 GMT -5
NE, i chose Big Short based on your analysis!
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Dracula
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Post by Dracula on Feb 28, 2016 17:56:28 GMT -5
Wow, lots here are thinking Revenant will win. I'd say it has about a 40% chance. We're predicting that Big Short and Spotlight will cancel each other other. The Best Picture category uses a preferential voting system, like Dracula's Top CS! movie list, so a more neutral movie has a greater chance of winning because it'll have a more consistent place on the list. The Oscars are like high school. If two movies are neck and neck, there's gonna be shenanigans involved. Let's say someone wants Spotlight to win. That person could put Big Short at the bottom of the list so it could get less points. Revenant doesn't have to deal with that stuff. That movie is probably not lower than #5 on most people's list. That's not exactly how it works. The preferential ballot is an instant-runoff system. So basically they start by tabulating all the number one votes. If one movie has 50%+1 of the votes at that stage it's over, that movie wins, and the rest of the ballot doesn't matter. If no movie has 50%+1 of the votes at that point they go to whatever movie has the fewest number one votes and convert those into ballots for whatever their number two choice was, then repeat that process until one movie has the majority vote. So, if someone were to put Spotlight at number one and The Big Short at number two, that vote for The Big Short wouldn't come into play unless Spotlight had already been eliminated. |
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Neverending
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Post by Neverending on Feb 28, 2016 18:09:54 GMT -5
NE, i chose Big Short based on your analysis! It could still win. They start by tabulating all the number one votes. If one movie has 50%+1 of the votes at that stage it's over, that movie wins, and the rest of the ballot doesn't matter. Which isn't happening this year. The problem is that most people aren't putting Spotlight and The Big Short at #1 and #2, which is why they're likely to cancel each other out and give The Revenant - or Mad Max - a chance to slip by and take the win. |
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The Moose
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Post by The Moose on Feb 28, 2016 18:44:12 GMT -5
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
“The Revenant” Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
“Mad Max: Fury Road” George Miller
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant”
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Brie Larson in “Room”
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“The Martian” Screenplay by Drew Goddard
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Bridge of Spies” Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
“Son of Saul” Hungary
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
“Inside Out” Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera
ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Martian” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
“The Revenant” Emmanuel Lubezki
ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Jenny Beavan
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
“The Revenant” Stephen Mirrione
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
“Bridge of Spies” Thomas Newman
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
“Mad Max: Fury Road” Mark Mangini and David White
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Revenant” Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt
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FShuttari
CS! Bronze
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SPIDEY do! What SPIDEY DOES!
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Post by FShuttari on Feb 28, 2016 20:56:16 GMT -5
2 for 2 so far!!
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Jibbs
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Post by Jibbs on Feb 29, 2016 0:14:16 GMT -5
The THREE way tie winners are...
Chewie, frankyt and Neverending!
1st - chewie - 83
1st - frankyt - 83
1st - Neverending - 83
4th - JBond - 78
4th - PG Cooper - 78
6th - donny - 75
7th - Fshuttari - 73
8th - Dracula - 70
9th - thebtskink - 68
10th - IanTheCool - 60
11th - Nilade - 53
12th - Ramplate - 48
13th - Hollywood - 38
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Jibbs
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Post by Jibbs on Feb 29, 2016 0:14:38 GMT -5
Thanks to everyone for playing.
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thebtskink
CS! Silver
Join Date: Jul 2000
It puts the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again.
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Post by thebtskink on Feb 29, 2016 0:36:24 GMT -5
Man, it was going so well for me for a while.
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Ramplate
CS! Platinum
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Hamster
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Post by Ramplate on Feb 29, 2016 6:34:05 GMT -5
I'm about where I thought I'd be, not having seen most of the nominees
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IanTheCool
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Post by IanTheCool on Feb 29, 2016 7:56:06 GMT -5
Thanks Jbond.
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Post by Hollywood on Feb 29, 2016 16:53:05 GMT -5
Dead last...... i need to do more studying for next year.  |
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